Turbulence in the travel industry
By the end of 2023, EIU predicted that once COVID-19 fears subside and limitations are relaxed, international tourist arrivals would return to levels similar to those before the outbreak. However, those expectations have been dimmed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the ensuing political unrest, global inflation, and economic slowdown—as well as China’s stringent zero-covid approach.
EIU prediction for a tourism recovery has now been pushed back to 2024, with significant turbulence likely in the interim.
Given the severity of the tourism collapse in 2020–21, 2023 will almost certainly see considerable increase after most nations have relaxed travel restrictions. Globally, EIU anticipates a 30% increase in foreign tourism arrivals, bringing the total to 1.6 billion, due to pent-up demand for travel.
This comes after a 60% increase in 2022, but it won’t be enough to raise overall arrivals to their level of 1.8 billion in 2019. The trajectory will vary by region, though. Due to the effects of the war in Ukraine, Eastern Europe won’t see a full recovery until 2025, while much of the Middle East has already experienced one thanks to high oil prices. Other regions will fall somewhere in the middle, with the majority recovering fully by 2024.
